FA Cup
Match Analysis
Ascot United
Pagham
Ascot United
L
W
L
W
D
W
Pagham
L
L
L
L
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts an Ascot United home win with a 55% probability. Ascot United have a modest quality edge and better recent form compared to Pagham, who are coming off poor performances and have shown defensive struggles. However, Pagham do have a rest advantage, which may help them slightly. The model also sees a good chance (57%) that both teams will score, and expects more than one goal (61% over 1.5) and more than two goals (57% over 2.5) in the match.
Ascot United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 25 | Away | Tower Hamlets | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 25 | Home | Glebe | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 17, 24 | Away | Virginia Water | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 3, 24 | Home | Milton United | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 23, 24 | Home | Virginia Water | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 16, 24 | Home | Holyport | 1 - 0 | Win |
Pagham Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 25 | Home | Horsham YMCA | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 3, 24 | Away | Erith Town | 6 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 5, 23 | Home | East Grinstead Town | 0 - 4 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 22 | Home | Erith Town | 0 - 4 | Loss |
| Aug 10, 21 | Home | Steyning Town | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 7, 21 | Away | Steyning Town | 2 - 2 | Draw |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.68% likelihood that both Ascot United and Pagham will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Ascot United to win
This prediction indicates that Ascot United has a 54.63% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.90 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.98% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.6% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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