CA La Paz vs Venados FC Saturday 03rd October 2026 06:00 AM football predictions.

Liga de Expansión MX

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CA La Paz View team ›

Oct. 3, 2026 2 weeks, 1 day ago

1 – 2

Full Time

Venados FC View team ›

Match Analysis

CA La Paz Venados FC

CA La Paz W W D W W D

Venados FC W L W L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts a home win for CA La Paz with a 63% probability. It also expects both teams to score and that there will be over 1.5 goals, with probabilities of 68% and 71% respectively. The model’s confidence in a home win is notably higher than what the market odds imply, which suggest a less pronounced advantage for CA La Paz. Additionally, the model agrees with the market on the likelihood of both teams scoring and over 1.5 goals, as the odds also favor these outcomes.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
CA La Paz	Venados FC	1 - 0	Liga de Expansión MX	January 31, 2026
Venados FC	CA La Paz	3 - 3	Liga de Expansión MX	August 23, 2025
Venados FC	CA La Paz	2 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	February 8, 2025
CA La Paz	Venados FC	1 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	August 24, 2024
Venados FC	CA La Paz	2 - 3	Liga de Expansión MX	April 27, 2024
CA La Paz	Venados FC	3 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	April 25, 2024

CA La Paz Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 25, 26	Away	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 3	Win
Sep 19, 26	Home	Correcaminos Uat	Liga de Expansión MX	3 - 1	Win
Sep 13, 26	Away	Leones Negros UDG	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 5, 26	Home	Mineros de Zacatecas	Liga de Expansión MX	3 - 0	Win
Aug 28, 26	Away	Cancún	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 2	Win
Aug 22, 26	Home	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 1	Draw

Venados FC Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 26, 26	Home	Monarcas	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 1	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Piratas	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Home	Tepatitlán	Liga de Expansión MX	5 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	CDS Tampico Madero	Liga de Expansión MX	4 - 3	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Away	Tlaxcala	Liga de Expansión MX	3 - 1	Loss
Aug 20, 26	Home	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	4 - 2	Win

Liga de Expansión MX Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	CA La Paz	10	6	2	2	23	11	+12	20
5	Venados FC	10	5	1	4	24	20	+4	16

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	7	3	2	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	7	2	3	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	5	3	4	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	5	3	4	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	+3	18
8	Durango	12	5	3	4	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	-2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	-13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	2	1	9	-24	7

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 68.29% likelihood that both CA La Paz and Venados FC will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

CA La Paz to win

This prediction indicates that CA La Paz has a 63.22% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.90 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 70.53% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 73.66% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Top Picks

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Odds Comparison

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Match Analysis

Why this prediction? AI insight

Head to Head History

CA La Paz Form (Last 6 Matches)

Venados FC Form (Last 6 Matches)

Liga de Expansión MX Table

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

CA La Paz to win

Over 1.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

Most Likely Scorelines

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