Celoricense vs Vila Meã Sunday 11th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

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Celoricense View team ›

Oct. 11, 2026 1 week ago

0 – 0

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Vila Meã View team ›

Match Analysis

Celoricense Vila Meã

Celoricense L L W W W D

Vila Meã W L D D W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The two teams are closely matched in overall quality, but the model predicts a home win with a 49% probability. Despite Vila Meã's recent attacking form and rest advantage, the model is only slightly more confident in Celoricense than the market odds imply, as the odds suggest a similar level of uncertainty. The model also sees a lower chance of both teams scoring and of the match producing many goals, aligning with the market's general direction but showing a bit more caution on these points.

Celoricense Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Away	Bragança	Taça de Portugal	6 - 1	Loss
Sep 13, 26	Away	Chaves II	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 6, 26	Home	Tirsense	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	2 - 1	Win
Aug 30, 26	Home	Pevidem	Taça de Portugal	1 - 0	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	Maria da Fonte	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	0 - 1	Win
Aug 16, 26	Home	Montalegre	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	0 - 0	Draw

Vila Meã Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 13, 26	Home	Vinhais	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	4 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Rebordosa	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 30, 26	Away	Maia Lidador	Taça de Portugal	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 23, 26	Home	Os Limianos	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 16, 26	Away	Ponte da Barca	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	1 - 2	Win
Dec 17, 25	Home	União de Leiria	Taça de Portugal	0 - 1	Loss

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Vila Meã	4	2	1	1	7	3	+4	7
7	Celoricense	4	2	1	1	3	2	+1	7

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chaves II	5	4	0	1	+5	12
2	SC Braga B	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Os Limianos	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Bragança	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Tirsense	5	3	0	2	+4	9
6	Montalegre	5	2	3	0	+4	9
7	Vila Meã	5	2	2	1	+4	8
8	Celoricense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Rebordosa	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Ponte da Barca	5	1	1	3	-4	4
11	Maria da Fonte	5	1	1	3	-5	4
12	Brito	5	1	0	4	-8	3
13	Maia Lidador	5	0	2	3	-3	2
14	Vinhais	5	0	0	5	-10	0

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 56.84% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Celoricense to win

This prediction indicates that Celoricense has a 48.51% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.82 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.54% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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