Cesena vs Avellino Saturday 17th October 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

Serie B

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Cesena View team ›

Oct. 18, 2026 8 hours ago VS

Avellino View team ›

Match Analysis

Cesena Avellino

Cesena L D D D W D

Avellino W L D W W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts a home win for Cesena with a 43% probability. Despite Avellino having a modest quality edge and strong recent form, Cesena's moderate recent form and historical dominance in recent meetings, which were high-scoring, influence the prediction. The market odds imply a slightly higher chance of a home win than the model suggests. The model also sees a good chance (54%) that both teams will score and favors slightly (51% and 52%) that more than one or two goals will be scored, aligning reasonably well with the market odds on these markets.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Avellino	Cesena	3 - 1	Serie B	January 31, 2026
Cesena	Avellino	3 - 0	Serie B	November 9, 2025
Avellino	Cesena	1 - 1	Serie B	February 10, 2018
Cesena	Avellino	3 - 1	Serie B	September 15, 2017
Avellino	Cesena	1 - 1	Serie B	April 22, 2017
Cesena	Avellino	3 - 0	Serie B	November 26, 2016

Cesena Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Away	Benevento	Serie B	2 - 0	Loss
Sep 18, 26	Away	Juve Stabia	Serie B	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 12, 26	Home	Cremonese	Serie B	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 6, 26	Home	Mantova	Serie B	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 29, 26	Away	Virtus Entella	Serie B	1 - 2	Win
Aug 23, 26	Home	Sampdoria	Serie B	1 - 1	Draw

Avellino Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 9, 26	Home	Sampdoria	Serie B	4 - 1	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Ascoli	Serie B	3 - 1	Loss
Sep 13, 26	Home	Palermo	Serie B	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 6, 26	Away	Modena	Serie B	0 - 1	Win
Aug 29, 26	Home	Vicenza Virtus	Serie B	3 - 0	Win
Aug 22, 26	Home	Arezzo	Serie B	1 - 2	Loss

Serie B Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11	7	+4	10
10	Cesena	6	1	4	1	7	8	-1	7

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Mantova	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Pisa	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Modena	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	+6	12
6	Ascoli	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Benevento	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Avellino	6	3	1	2	+4	10
9	Virtus Entella	7	2	3	2	+2	9
10	Verona	7	2	2	3	+2	8
11	Cesena	6	1	4	1	-1	7
12	Carrarese	7	2	1	4	-1	7
13	Empoli	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Padova	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Arezzo	6	2	1	3	-7	7
16	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	-3	6
17	Cremonese	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Vicenza Virtus	7	1	3	3	-6	6
19	Catanzaro	7	1	1	5	-6	4
20	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.56% likelihood that both Cesena and Avellino will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Cesena to win

This prediction indicates that Cesena has a 43.24% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.66 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.55% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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