CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca Sunday 18th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

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CF Os Belenenses View team ›

Oct. 18, 2026 4 hours ago VS

Arouca View team ›

Match Analysis

CF Os Belenenses Arouca

CF Os Belenenses D W W W W W

Arouca W D L D W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts a home win for CF Os Belenenses with a 38% probability. Despite Arouca having a modest quality edge, CF Os Belenenses' strong recent form and attacking momentum favor their chances. The market odds imply a much lower likelihood of a home win, suggesting the model is notably more optimistic about CF Os Belenenses' prospects. Additionally, the model sees a 51% chance that both teams will score and a 52% chance that more than 1.5 goals will be scored, indicating an expectation of a lively match overall.

CF Os Belenenses Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 11, 26	Away	Mafra	Liga 3	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 19, 26	Away	Beira-Mar	Taça de Portugal	0 - 2	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Atlético CP	Liga 3	1 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Vitória de Sernache	Liga 3	1 - 3	Win
Aug 30, 26	Away	Lusitano Évora 1911	Taça de Portugal	1 - 2	Win
Aug 22, 26	Home	União Santarém	Liga 3	5 - 0	Win

Arouca Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 11, 26	Home	Estrela	Primeira Liga	1 - 0	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Sporting CP	Primeira Liga	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 13, 26	Home	Santa Clara	Primeira Liga	1 - 2	Loss
Sep 7, 26	Away	Estoril	Primeira Liga	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 29, 26	Home	Maritimo	Primeira Liga	2 - 1	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	FC Porto	Primeira Liga	2 - 0	Loss

Predictions

CF Os Belenenses to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that CF Os Belenenses has a 38.18% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.42 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.37% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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