Club Nacional vs Progreso Monday 24th August 2026 12:30 AM football predictions.

Primera División - Apertura

Aug. 24, 2026 1 week, 1 day from now VS

Club Nacional Progreso

Club Nacional L W W L L D

Progreso L L W L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Club Nacional	Progreso	2 - 1	August 2, 2026
Progreso	Club Nacional	0 - 1	February 21, 2026
Club Nacional	Progreso	3 - 1	August 16, 2025
Club Nacional	Progreso	1 - 0	May 23, 2025
Progreso	Club Nacional	1 - 5	February 16, 2025
Progreso	Club Nacional	0 - 3	September 29, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 9, 26	Home	Boston River	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 2, 26	Home	Progreso	2 - 1	Win
Jul 28, 26	Away	Tigre	1 - 2	Win
Jul 21, 26	Home	Tigre	0 - 3	Loss
Jul 17, 26	Home	Wanderers	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Away	Danubio	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 8, 26	Away	Central Espanol	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 2, 26	Away	Club Nacional	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Home	Deportivo Maldonado	1 - 0	Win
Jul 11, 26	Away	Wanderers	2 - 0	Loss
Jun 7, 26	Home	Albion FC	1 - 2	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	Danubio	1 - 2	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	Club Nacional	23	11	2	10	35	31	+4	35
16	Progreso	23	4	4	15	18	35	-17	16

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.11% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Club Nacional has a 66.56% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 17.63 %

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