Primera División - Apertura logo

Primera División - Apertura
Deportivo Maldonado logo Deportivo Maldonado
Aug. 23, 2026 1 week from now VS
Penarol logo Penarol

Match Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado D D L D W W
Penarol W W W D W L
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Penarol Deportivo Maldonado 2 - 1 February 22, 2026
Penarol Deportivo Maldonado 2 - 0 October 11, 2024
Penarol Deportivo Maldonado 1 - 1 July 6, 2024
Deportivo Maldonado Penarol 1 - 2 April 7, 2024
Deportivo Maldonado Penarol 0 - 1 October 14, 2023
Penarol Deportivo Maldonado 2 - 1 March 5, 2023

Deportivo Maldonado Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 10, 26 Home Racing Montevideo 2 - 2 Draw
Aug 1, 26 Home Juventud 0 - 0 Draw
Jul 18, 26 Away Progreso 1 - 0 Loss
Jul 10, 26 Home Albion FC 1 - 1 Draw
Jun 6, 26 Away Atletico Torque 2 - 4 Win
May 31, 26 Home Club Nacional 3 - 0 Win

Penarol Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 5, 26 Home Wanderers 5 - 1 Win
Aug 1, 26 Home Cerro Largo 3 - 0 Win
Jul 18, 26 Home Boston River 3 - 0 Win
Jul 12, 26 Away Racing Montevideo 1 - 1 Draw
Jun 7, 26 Away Cerro 0 - 1 Win
Jun 1, 26 Home Central Espanol 0 - 1 Loss

Primera División - Apertura Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Penarol 23 14 4 5 40 20 +20 46
2 Deportivo Maldonado 22 12 5 5 36 22 +14 41

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.91% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Penarol to win
This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 42.35% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.99 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.73% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 61.67% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Primera División - Apertura

Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional 17 hours from now · 10:30 p.m. › Juventud vs Atletico Torque 13 hours from now · 7 p.m. › Cerro vs Albion FC 10 hours from now · 4 p.m. › Boston River vs Danubio 4 hours ago · 1 a.m. ›