Primeira Liga
Match Analysis
Estoril
Arouca
Estoril
L
L
D
D
D
L
Arouca
W
W
W
L
D
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | Estoril | 3 - 2 | April 6, 2026 |
| Estoril | Arouca | 4 - 3 | November 7, 2025 |
| Arouca | Estoril | 1 - 1 | March 16, 2025 |
| Estoril | Arouca | 4 - 1 | October 26, 2024 |
| Estoril | Arouca | 1 - 2 | January 20, 2024 |
| Arouca | Estoril | 4 - 3 | August 13, 2023 |
Estoril Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Rio Ave | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Nacional | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 7, 26 | Home | Famalicao | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | CF Os Belenenses | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Torreense | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 22, 26 | Away | Alverca | 2 - 0 | Loss |
Arouca Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Moreirense | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Guimaraes | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Lusitânia Lourosa | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Santa Clara | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 22, 26 | Away | Famalicao | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Feirense | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Primeira Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 14 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.12% likelihood that both Estoril and Arouca will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Arouca to win
This prediction indicates that Arouca has a 42.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.48 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.1% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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