FBK Karlstad vs Karlberg Saturday 17th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Ettan - Norra

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FBK Karlstad View team ›

Oct. 17, 2026 1 day, 10 hours ago

3 – 1

Full Time

Karlberg View team ›

Match Analysis

FBK Karlstad Karlberg

FBK Karlstad L D W D D W

Karlberg D W D L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts a home win for FBK Karlstad with a 53% probability. It sees FBK Karlstad as having a modest quality edge and stronger recent form compared to Karlberg's poor recent form, supporting the home advantage. The model also expects both teams to score (59% probability) and for the match to have more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals (64% and 62% probabilities respectively), noting that recent meetings between these sides have been goal-heavy. The market odds reflect similar confidence in the home win and over 2.5 goals, but the model appears slightly more confident in these outcomes.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Karlberg	FBK Karlstad	1 - 1	Ettan - Norra	May 31, 2026
Karlberg	FBK Karlstad	1 - 2	Ettan - Norra	September 21, 2024
FBK Karlstad	Karlberg	0 - 3	Ettan - Norra	April 27, 2024

FBK Karlstad Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 11, 26	Away	Assyriska FF	Ettan - Norra	1 - 0	Loss
Oct 3, 26	Home	AFC Eskilstuna	Ettan - Norra	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 27, 26	Away	Umeå FC	Ettan - Norra	1 - 3	Win
Sep 19, 26	Home	Sollentuna	Ettan - Norra	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 16, 26	Away	IF Karlstad	Ettan - Norra	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 12, 26	Home	Vasalund	Ettan - Norra	2 - 1	Win

Karlberg Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Home	Vasalund	Ettan - Norra	3 - 3	Draw
Oct 2, 26	Home	Sollentuna	Ettan - Norra	3 - 2	Win
Sep 27, 26	Away	IF Karlstad	Ettan - Norra	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 20, 26	Home	Stockholm Internazionale	Ettan - Norra	0 - 2	Loss
Sep 17, 26	Away	Järfälla	Ettan - Norra	5 - 0	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Home	Arlanda	Ettan - Norra	1 - 0	Win

Ettan - Norra Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	41	36	+5	43
10	Karlberg	26	9	6	11	36	44	-8	33

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	27	19	4	4	+42	61
2	Arlanda	27	14	6	7	+13	48
3	Enköping	27	15	3	9	+1	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	+11	47
5	FBK Karlstad	27	13	7	7	+7	46
6	Hammarby Talang	26	13	6	7	+25	45
7	IF Karlstad	26	12	8	6	+15	44
8	Assyriska FF	26	10	5	11	-1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	-6	35
10	Karlberg	27	9	6	12	-10	33
11	gefle IF	27	9	5	13	-14	32
12	Vasalund	26	7	7	12	-16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	6	9	11	-9	27
14	Piteå	26	5	8	13	-16	23
15	Järfälla	27	6	4	17	-21	22
16	Stocksund	27	3	6	18	-21	15

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.56% likelihood that both FBK Karlstad and Karlberg will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

FBK Karlstad to win

This prediction indicates that FBK Karlstad has a 53.44% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.03 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.52% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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Match Analysis

Why this prediction? AI insight

Head to Head History

FBK Karlstad Form (Last 6 Matches)

Karlberg Form (Last 6 Matches)

Ettan - Norra Table

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

FBK Karlstad to win

Over 1.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

Most Likely Scorelines

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