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Virsliga

June 21, 2026 1 week, 1 day ago
4 – 1
Full Time

Match Analysis

FS Jelgava Tukums
FS Jelgava L D D D L D
Tukums W D L L L D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Tukums FS Jelgava 5 - 0 May 1, 2026
FS Jelgava Tukums 2 - 1 March 8, 2026
Tukums FS Jelgava 1 - 1 November 9, 2025
FS Jelgava Tukums 1 - 1 August 23, 2025
Tukums FS Jelgava 1 - 1 June 17, 2025
FS Jelgava Tukums 2 - 1 April 23, 2025

FS Jelgava Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 17, 26 Home Ogre United 0 - 2 Loss
Jun 13, 26 Away Auda 1 - 1 Draw
May 31, 26 Home BFC Daugavpils 1 - 1 Draw
May 26, 26 Home FK Liepaja 1 - 1 Draw
May 21, 26 Away Rīgas FS 4 - 0 Loss
May 16, 26 Away Riga 2 - 2 Draw

Tukums Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jun 17, 26 Home Auda 2 - 1 Win
Jun 12, 26 Home BFC Daugavpils 1 - 1 Draw
May 30, 26 Away FK Liepaja 3 - 0 Loss
May 25, 26 Away Rīgas FS 3 - 1 Loss
May 20, 26 Home Riga 1 - 3 Loss
May 15, 26 Away Grobiņa 3 - 3 Draw

Virsliga Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
7 Tukums 18 3 8 7 32 32 0 17
9 FS Jelgava 18 3 7 8 13 33 -20 16

Predictions

Tukums to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Tukums has a 36.8% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.91 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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