FS Jelgava vs Tukums Sunday 21st June 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

FS Jelgava Tukums

FS Jelgava L D D D L D

Tukums W D L L L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Tukums	FS Jelgava	5 - 0	May 1, 2026
FS Jelgava	Tukums	2 - 1	March 8, 2026
Tukums	FS Jelgava	1 - 1	November 9, 2025
FS Jelgava	Tukums	1 - 1	August 23, 2025
Tukums	FS Jelgava	1 - 1	June 17, 2025
FS Jelgava	Tukums	2 - 1	April 23, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 17, 26	Home	Ogre United	0 - 2	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Away	Auda	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Home	BFC Daugavpils	1 - 1	Draw
May 26, 26	Home	FK Liepaja	1 - 1	Draw
May 21, 26	Away	Rīgas FS	4 - 0	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Riga	2 - 2	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 17, 26	Home	Auda	2 - 1	Win
Jun 12, 26	Home	BFC Daugavpils	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Away	FK Liepaja	3 - 0	Loss
May 25, 26	Away	Rīgas FS	3 - 1	Loss
May 20, 26	Home	Riga	1 - 3	Loss
May 15, 26	Away	Grobiņa	3 - 3	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	Tukums	18	3	8	7	32	32	0	17
9	FS Jelgava	18	3	7	8	13	33	-20	16

This prediction indicates that Tukums has a 36.8% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.91 %

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