Serie A
Match Analysis
Genoa
Fiorentina
Genoa
L
L
W
D
L
L
Fiorentina
D
L
W
L
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Both Genoa and Fiorentina are showing poor recent form, but Fiorentina has a modest quality edge and has dominated recent meetings between the two sides. The model predicts a 45% chance that Fiorentina will win, which is higher than what the current market odds suggest. Additionally, the model sees a 49% chance that both teams will not score, aligning closely with the market view on that outcome.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | Genoa | 0 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | 2 - 2 | November 9, 2025 |
| Fiorentina | Genoa | 2 - 1 | February 2, 2025 |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | 0 - 1 | October 31, 2024 |
| Fiorentina | Genoa | 1 - 1 | April 15, 2024 |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | 1 - 4 | August 19, 2023 |
Genoa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 26 | Away | Rapid | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 20, 26 | Away | Parma | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 15, 26 | Home | Sudtirol | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Frosinone | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 4, 26 | Home | como | 1 - 4 | Loss |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Lazio | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Fiorentina Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 26 | Home | Napoli | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 15, 26 | Away | Pisa | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 11, 26 | Away | Venezia | 2 - 4 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Torino | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Frosinone | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 24, 26 | Away | AS Roma | 4 - 0 | Loss |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fiorentina | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Genoa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions
Fiorentina to win
This prediction indicates that Fiorentina has a 45.21% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.63 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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