Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros UDG Saturday 11th July 2026 05:00 AM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas Leones Negros UDG

Guadalajara Chivas D L D W L D

Leones Negros UDG L L L W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Guadalajara Chivas Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Away	Correcaminos Uat	0 - 0	Draw
May 17, 26	Home	Cruz Azul	1 - 2	Loss
May 14, 26	Away	Cruz Azul	2 - 2	Draw
May 10, 26	Home	Tigres UANL	2 - 0	Win
May 3, 26	Away	Tigres UANL	3 - 1	Loss
Apr 26, 26	Home	Club Tijuana	0 - 0	Draw

Leones Negros UDG Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jan 4, 26	Home	Monterrey	0 - 3	Loss
Dec 27, 25	Away	Atlas	3 - 1	Loss
Dec 20, 25	Away	Leon	3 - 1	Loss
Dec 28, 24	Home	Tapatío	3 - 0	Win
Feb 5, 24	Home	Houston Dynamo	5 - 3	Win
Jul 15, 23	Home	Tepatitlán	3 - 1	Win

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.73% likelihood that both Guadalajara Chivas and Leones Negros UDG will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Guadalajara Chivas to win

This prediction indicates that Guadalajara Chivas has a 57.67% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 23.64 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.23% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.05% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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