USL Championship
Match Analysis
Lexington
Orange County SC
Lexington
L
L
W
L
W
W
Orange County SC
D
L
L
L
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | Lexington | 0 - 0 | April 19, 2026 |
| Lexington | Orange County SC | 1 - 1 | September 12, 2025 |
| Orange County SC | Lexington | 2 - 2 | March 16, 2025 |
Lexington Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | New Mexico United | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Las Vegas Lights | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Monterey Bay | 3 - 2 | Win |
Orange County SC Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | FC Tulsa | 1 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Louisville City | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | El Paso Locomotive | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Monterey Bay | 1 - 2 | Win |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orange County SC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 35 |
| 12 | Lexington | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 31 |
Predictions
Lexington to win
This prediction indicates that Lexington has a 46.14% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.70 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.51% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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