USL Championship
Match Analysis
Las Vegas Lights
New Mexico United
Las Vegas Lights
W
W
D
D
W
W
New Mexico United
W
W
W
W
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | Las Vegas Lights | 3 - 1 | May 10, 2026 |
| New Mexico United | Las Vegas Lights | 2 - 2 | August 17, 2025 |
| Las Vegas Lights | New Mexico United | 2 - 3 | March 16, 2025 |
| New Mexico United | Las Vegas Lights | 0 - 1 | November 10, 2024 |
| New Mexico United | Las Vegas Lights | 1 - 2 | August 1, 2024 |
| Las Vegas Lights | New Mexico United | 1 - 2 | May 5, 2024 |
Las Vegas Lights Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Brooklyn | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Miami FC | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 6, 26 | Home | Oakland Roots | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Detroit City | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | San Antonio | 1 - 2 | Win |
New Mexico United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | FC Tulsa | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Monterey Bay | 2 - 5 | Win |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 15, 26 | Away | Lexington | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Oakland Roots | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 2, 26 | Home | Atlante FC | 3 - 3 | Draw |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | New Mexico United | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 33 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Lights | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 29 |
Predictions
New Mexico United to win
This prediction indicates that New Mexico United has a 41.78% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.13 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.35% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.26% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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