USL Championship
Match Analysis
Monterey Bay
Phoenix Rising
Monterey Bay
D
L
L
L
L
L
Phoenix Rising
W
L
D
D
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising | Monterey Bay | 3 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| Phoenix Rising | Monterey Bay | 2 - 0 | May 18, 2025 |
| Monterey Bay | Phoenix Rising | 3 - 1 | March 30, 2025 |
| Phoenix Rising | Monterey Bay | 1 - 2 | October 5, 2024 |
| Monterey Bay | Phoenix Rising | 1 - 0 | March 17, 2024 |
| Monterey Bay | Phoenix Rising | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2023 |
Monterey Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | New Mexico United | 2 - 5 | Loss |
| Aug 6, 26 | Away | El Paso Locomotive | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Lexington | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Orange County SC | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Phoenix Rising | 3 - 2 | Loss |
Phoenix Rising Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Lexington | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Las Vegas Lights | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Hartford Athletic | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | Monterey Bay | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 5, 26 | Away | Colorado Springs | 3 - 1 | Loss |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 22 |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 16 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.05% likelihood that both Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Phoenix Rising to win
This prediction indicates that Phoenix Rising has a 45.64% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.61 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.7% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.06% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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