Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai Sunday 11th October 2026 07:00 AM football predictions.

J2 League

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Montedio Yamagata View team ›

Oct. 11, 2026 1 week ago

0 – 1

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Vegalta Sendai View team ›

Match Analysis

Montedio Yamagata Vegalta Sendai

Montedio Yamagata L W L L L W

Vegalta Sendai W W W D W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

In their recent head-to-head matches, Vegalta Sendai has generally dominated Montedio Yamagata. The model predicts an away win for Vegalta Sendai with a 53% probability, reflecting the clear quality gap and stronger recent form of the away side, which is also supported by their solid attacking displays. The market odds also lean toward an away win, though they appear slightly less confident than the model's assessment. Additionally, the model sees a 51% chance that both teams will score and a 51% chance that there will be more than 2.5 goals, suggesting an open, potentially high-scoring game.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Vegalta Sendai	Montedio Yamagata	1 - 0	J2 League	April 25, 2026
Montedio Yamagata	Vegalta Sendai	0 - 1	J2 League	March 22, 2026
Vegalta Sendai	Montedio Yamagata	3 - 1	J2 League	September 20, 2025
Montedio Yamagata	Vegalta Sendai	3 - 4	J2 League	June 15, 2025
Montedio Yamagata	Vegalta Sendai	1 - 1	J2 League	June 22, 2024
Vegalta Sendai	Montedio Yamagata	2 - 0	J2 League	April 13, 2024

Montedio Yamagata Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Away	Oita Trinita	J2 League	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 26, 26	Home	Sagan Tosu	J2 League	2 - 0	Win
Sep 19, 26	Home	Kataller Toyama	J2 League	0 - 2	Loss
Sep 13, 26	Away	Albirex Niigata	J2 League	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Home	Ventforet Kofu	J2 League	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Away	Imabari	J2 League	0 - 3	Win

Vegalta Sendai Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 4, 26	Home	Jubilo Iwata	J2 League	2 - 1	Win
Sep 26, 26	Away	Iwaki	J2 League	0 - 2	Win
Sep 20, 26	Away	Tochigi City	J2 League	1 - 3	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Consadole Sapporo	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 5, 26	Away	Shonan Bellmare	J2 League	1 - 3	Win
Aug 29, 26	Home	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	J2 League	4 - 2	Win

J2 League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	29	18	8	3	51	24	+27	62
18	Montedio Yamagata	29	10	3	16	32	35	-3	33

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	31	19	9	3	+28	66
2	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	31	19	7	5	+24	64
3	Kataller Toyama	31	16	10	5	+23	58
4	Albirex Niigata	31	15	9	7	0	54
5	Omiya Ardija	31	15	7	9	+20	52
6	Yokohama FC	31	15	6	10	+15	51
7	Tokushima Vortis	31	15	5	11	+16	50
8	Blaublitz Akita	31	14	7	10	+7	49
9	Shonan Bellmare	31	12	11	8	+7	47
10	Sagan Tosu	31	13	8	10	+7	47
11	Fujieda MYFC	31	10	15	6	+7	45
12	Ventforet Kofu	30	13	4	13	-3	43
13	Oita Trinita	31	11	9	11	+8	42
14	Consadole Sapporo	31	12	6	13	-2	42
15	Iwaki	30	11	7	12	-2	40
16	Jubilo Iwata	31	9	10	12	-8	37
17	Montedio Yamagata	31	10	4	17	-4	34
18	Tochigi City	31	9	7	15	-12	34
19	Kagoshima United	20	9	6	5	+10	33
20	FC Gifu	20	9	4	7	-1	31
21	Imabari	31	8	7	16	-13	31
22	Sagamihara	20	8	6	6	+1	30
23	Vanraure Hachinohe	31	7	9	15	-16	30
24	Kochi United	20	8	5	7	+1	29
25	Roasso Kumamoto	20	9	2	9	-2	29
26	Ehime FC	20	8	3	9	+5	27
27	Renofa Yamaguchi	20	7	6	7	+1	27
28	Gainare Tottori	20	7	6	7	-2	27
29	Matsumoto Yamaga	20	6	7	7	+8	25
30	Kanazawa	20	6	7	7	-5	25
31	Nara Club	20	6	5	9	-7	23
32	Thespakusatsu Gunma	20	6	4	10	-14	22
33	Kamatamare Sanuki	20	6	4	10	-16	22
34	Biwako Shiga	20	6	3	11	-15	21
35	Fukushima United	20	5	5	10	-12	20
36	Osaka	20	3	10	7	-3	19
37	Tochigi SC	20	4	7	9	-5	19
38	FC Ryukyu	20	3	8	9	-11	17
39	Kitakyushu	20	4	4	12	-17	16
40	Parceiro Nagano	20	3	7	10	-18	16

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Vegalta Sendai to win

This prediction indicates that Vegalta Sendai has a 53.45% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.87 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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