Primeira Liga
Match Analysis
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
D
L
D
D
D
L
Estrela
D
D
W
D
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | Nacional | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| Nacional | Estrela | 2 - 0 | April 4, 2026 |
| Estrela | Nacional | 1 - 1 | November 9, 2025 |
| Nacional | Estrela | 0 - 1 | April 6, 2025 |
| Estrela | Nacional | 2 - 0 | November 10, 2024 |
| Estrela | Nacional | 0 - 1 | May 21, 2023 |
Nacional Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 26 | Away | Santa Clara | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 23, 26 | Away | Estrela | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 22, 26 | Home | Leganes | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Tondela | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Leixoes | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Machico | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Estrela Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Alverca | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Sporting CP | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Al-Nassr | 4 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 29, 26 | Away | Maritimo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 29, 26 | Home | Portimonense | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 29, 26 | Home | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 1 - 0 | Win |
Primeira Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Predictions
Nacional to win
This prediction indicates that Nacional has a 43.48% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.86 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.93% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.7% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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