Serie A
Match Analysis
Napoli
Frosinone
Napoli
D
W
L
L
L
W
Frosinone
W
W
D
W
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, Napoli have dominated their meetings with Frosinone. However, the model predicts a home win with a 63% probability, which is notably higher than what the current market odds suggest. This prediction leans on Napoli's clear quality gap and rest advantage, despite their recent poor form and Frosinone's strong recent performance. The model also sees a good chance of both teams scoring and for the match to have more than 2.5 goals, aligning closely with the market's view on these aspects.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | Frosinone | 2 - 2 | April 14, 2024 |
| Napoli | Frosinone | 0 - 4 | December 19, 2023 |
| Frosinone | Napoli | 1 - 3 | August 19, 2023 |
| Frosinone | Napoli | 0 - 2 | April 28, 2019 |
| Napoli | Frosinone | 4 - 0 | December 8, 2018 |
| Napoli | Frosinone | 4 - 0 | May 14, 2016 |
Napoli Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 26 | Away | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Bologna | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 9, 26 | Home | Arsenal | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Inter | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | como | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Genoa | 0 - 2 | Win |
Frosinone Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 26 | Home | Benevento | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 20, 26 | Home | como | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Genoa | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Venezia | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 2, 26 | Away | Sassuolo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Fiorentina | 0 - 3 | Win |
Serie A Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Frosinone | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Napoli | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.33% likelihood that both Napoli and Frosinone will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Napoli to win
This prediction indicates that Napoli has a 62.83% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.93 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.28% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.03% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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