Oita Trinita vs Albirex Niigata Saturday 17th October 2026 08:00 AM football predictions.

J2 League

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Oita Trinita View team ›

Oct. 17, 2026 1 day, 19 hours ago

5 – 1

Full Time

Albirex Niigata View team ›

Match Analysis

Oita Trinita Albirex Niigata

Oita Trinita W W D D D D

Albirex Niigata D W D W W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Oita Trinita and Albirex Niigata both arrive with decent recent form, but Albirex Niigata holds a modest quality advantage. However, Oita Trinita has a history of dominating their recent head-to-head meetings, and the teams have similar rest coming into this match. The model predicts a home win with a 39% probability, and this view is notably more confident than typical market odds would imply, reflecting the strength of Oita Trinita's past performances against Albirex Niigata despite the current form and quality factors.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Albirex Niigata	Oita Trinita	0 - 1	J2 League	September 3, 2022
Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata	1 - 2	J2 League	June 11, 2022
Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata	4 - 0	J2 League	August 5, 2018
Albirex Niigata	Oita Trinita	1 - 2	J2 League	May 6, 2018
Oita Trinita	Albirex Niigata	1 - 3	J1 League	November 10, 2013
Albirex Niigata	Oita Trinita	0 - 0	Emperor Cup	October 13, 2013

Oita Trinita Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Away	Yokohama FC	J2 League	1 - 2	Win
Oct 3, 26	Home	Montedio Yamagata	J2 League	2 - 1	Win
Sep 26, 26	Home	Fujieda MYFC	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 19, 26	Away	Consadole Sapporo	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 12, 26	Away	Omiya Ardija	J2 League	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 6, 26	Home	Imabari	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw

Albirex Niigata Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 11, 26	Away	Shonan Bellmare	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw
Oct 3, 26	Home	Tokushima Vortis	J2 League	2 - 1	Win
Sep 26, 26	Away	Blaublitz Akita	J2 League	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 19, 26	Home	Jubilo Iwata	J2 League	2 - 1	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Montedio Yamagata	J2 League	1 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Yokohama FC	J2 League	5 - 0	Loss

J2 League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
4	Albirex Niigata	30	15	9	6	35	31	+4	54
14	Oita Trinita	30	10	9	11	33	29	+4	39

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	31	19	9	3	+28	66
2	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	31	19	7	5	+24	64
3	Kataller Toyama	31	16	10	5	+23	58
4	Albirex Niigata	31	15	9	7	0	54
5	Omiya Ardija	31	15	7	9	+20	52
6	Yokohama FC	31	15	6	10	+15	51
7	Tokushima Vortis	31	15	5	11	+16	50
8	Blaublitz Akita	31	14	7	10	+7	49
9	Shonan Bellmare	31	12	11	8	+7	47
10	Sagan Tosu	31	13	8	10	+7	47
11	Fujieda MYFC	31	10	15	6	+7	45
12	Ventforet Kofu	30	13	4	13	-3	43
13	Oita Trinita	31	11	9	11	+8	42
14	Consadole Sapporo	31	12	6	13	-2	42
15	Iwaki	30	11	7	12	-2	40
16	Jubilo Iwata	31	9	10	12	-8	37
17	Montedio Yamagata	31	10	4	17	-4	34
18	Tochigi City	31	9	7	15	-12	34
19	Kagoshima United	20	9	6	5	+10	33
20	FC Gifu	20	9	4	7	-1	31
21	Imabari	31	8	7	16	-13	31
22	Sagamihara	20	8	6	6	+1	30
23	Vanraure Hachinohe	31	7	9	15	-16	30
24	Kochi United	20	8	5	7	+1	29
25	Roasso Kumamoto	20	9	2	9	-2	29
26	Ehime FC	20	8	3	9	+5	27
27	Renofa Yamaguchi	20	7	6	7	+1	27
28	Gainare Tottori	20	7	6	7	-2	27
29	Matsumoto Yamaga	20	6	7	7	+8	25
30	Kanazawa	20	6	7	7	-5	25
31	Nara Club	20	6	5	9	-7	23
32	Thespakusatsu Gunma	20	6	4	10	-14	22
33	Kamatamare Sanuki	20	6	4	10	-16	22
34	Biwako Shiga	20	6	3	11	-15	21
35	Fukushima United	20	5	5	10	-12	20
36	Osaka	20	3	10	7	-3	19
37	Tochigi SC	20	4	7	9	-5	19
38	FC Ryukyu	20	3	8	9	-11	17
39	Kitakyushu	20	4	4	12	-17	16
40	Parceiro Nagano	20	3	7	10	-18	16

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 54.0% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Oita Trinita to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Oita Trinita has a 39.34% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.02 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.45% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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