Ovarense vs Os Marialvas Sunday 20th September 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

Sept. 20, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Ovarense Os Marialvas

Ovarense D W D L

Os Marialvas W D D D L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 20, 25	Home	SC Covilha	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 31, 25	Home	SC Celoricense	7 - 1	Win
Sep 7, 24	Home	São João Ver	1 - 1	Draw
Oct 10, 20	Home	Oriental Dragon	1 - 2	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 30, 26	Away	AD Fornos Algodres	0 - 4	Win
Jul 22, 26	Away	União Lamas	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 21, 25	Away	Mortágua	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 31, 25	Away	Academica	0 - 0	Draw
Oct 20, 24	Home	Rebordosa	1 - 2	Loss
Sep 22, 24	Home	Tondela	2 - 1	Win

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.75% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Ovarense has a 43.39% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.06 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.39% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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