Paredes vs Famalicao Sunday 18th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

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Paredes View team ›

Oct. 18, 2026 4 hours ago VS

Famalicao View team ›

Match Analysis

Paredes Famalicao

Paredes D W W W W L

Famalicao L W D D D L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts an away win for Famalicao with a 40% probability. The model sees Famalicao as the stronger team overall, which supports the prediction of an away win, though it also notes that Paredes have been in strong recent form and have a rest advantage, which may help them compete. The market odds heavily favor Famalicao for the win, indicating much higher confidence than the model's 40% probability. The model also suggests it is unlikely both teams will score and that the game will likely have fewer than two goals total, views that align with the market odds for those outcomes.

Paredes Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Away	Vianense	Liga 3	3 - 3	Draw
Sep 20, 26	Home	Maria da Fonte	Taça de Portugal	5 - 1	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Fafe	Liga 3	2 - 1	Win
Sep 5, 26	Away	Varzim	Liga 3	0 - 1	Win
Aug 30, 26	Away	Ermesinde	Taça de Portugal	1 - 3	Win
Aug 23, 26	Home	Leça	Liga 3	1 - 2	Loss

Famalicao Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 12, 26	Home	Alverca	Primeira Liga	1 - 4	Loss
Sep 19, 26	Away	Nacional	Primeira Liga	0 - 4	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Sporting CP	Primeira Liga	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 5, 26	Away	Estrela	Primeira Liga	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 30, 26	Home	GIL Vicente	Primeira Liga	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 23, 26	Away	Santa Clara	Primeira Liga	1 - 0	Loss

Predictions

Paredes or Famalicao to win

This prediction indicates that Famalicao has a 39.51% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.71 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.15% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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