Ponte da Barca vs Amarante Sunday 20th September 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

Sept. 20, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Ponte da Barca Amarante

Ponte da Barca D W L D L W

Amarante W D L L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 30, 26	Away	Montalegre	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 23, 26	Away	Maia Lidador	0 - 1	Win
Aug 16, 26	Home	Vila Meã	1 - 2	Loss
Sep 8, 19	Away	Merelinense	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 25, 16	Away	Estarreja	3 - 1	Loss
Sep 4, 16	Home	Montalegre	1 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 30, 26	Home	Benfica B	1 - 0	Win
Aug 22, 26	Away	Vizela	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 16, 26	Home	Lusitânia Lourosa	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 8, 26	Away	Tondela	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 1, 26	Away	Moreirense	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 22, 26	Away	Chaves	2 - 1	Loss

This prediction suggests that there is a 58.66% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Amarante has a 36.45% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.38 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 64.52% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 65.24% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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