Real Unión vs UD Ourense Saturday 03rd October 2026 05:30 PM football predictions.

Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Oct. 3, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Real Unión UD Ourense

Real Unión L W W D W W

UD Ourense L L L D L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 13, 26	Away	Racing Ferrol	3 - 2	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Away	Unionistas de Salamanca	2 - 4	Win
Aug 30, 26	Home	CD Coria	4 - 1	Win
Aug 8, 26	Home	Eibar	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 1, 26	Away	PAU	1 - 2	Win
Aug 30, 25	Away	Náxara	0 - 1	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 12, 26	Home	UD Logroñés	0 - 3	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Away	Mirandes	2 - 0	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Home	Ponferradina	0 - 1	Loss
Oct 29, 25	Home	Pontevedra	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 13, 25	Home	Celta de Vigo II	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 14, 24	Home	Celta de Vigo II	1 - 2	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	Real Unión	3	2	0	1	10	6	+4	6
20	UD Ourense	3	0	0	3	0	6	-6	0

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.22% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Real Unión has a 63.58% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 19.99 %

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