Rio Ave vs Arouca Saturday 11th July 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Rio Ave Arouca

Rio Ave D L D L D W

Arouca W W D L W L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Rio Ave	Arouca	0 - 3	January 31, 2026
Arouca	Rio Ave	3 - 3	August 23, 2025
Arouca	Rio Ave	1 - 1	February 10, 2025
Rio Ave	Arouca	1 - 0	September 1, 2024
Rio Ave	Arouca	3 - 2	July 20, 2024
Rio Ave	Arouca	1 - 1	April 19, 2024

Rio Ave Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Away	Casa Pia	1 - 1	Draw
May 11, 26	Home	Sporting CP	1 - 4	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	GIL Vicente	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Away	Guimaraes	2 - 0	Loss
Apr 17, 26	Home	AVS	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 11, 26	Away	Santa Clara	0 - 2	Win

Arouca Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 16, 26	Home	Tondela	3 - 1	Win
May 11, 26	Away	GIL Vicente	1 - 3	Win
May 2, 26	Home	Santa Clara	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 24, 26	Away	Alverca	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Home	Estrela	1 - 0	Win
Apr 12, 26	Away	SC Braga	1 - 0	Loss

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.35% likelihood that both Rio Ave and Arouca will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Rio Ave to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Rio Ave has a 37.04% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.37 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.79% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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