Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija Saturday 17th October 2026 08:00 AM football predictions.

J2 League

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Sagan Tosu View team ›

Oct. 17, 2026 1 day, 19 hours ago

2 – 1

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Omiya Ardija View team ›

Match Analysis

Sagan Tosu Omiya Ardija

Sagan Tosu W L L L L L

Omiya Ardija W L D W D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Sagan Tosu have been struggling in their recent matches, while Omiya Ardija have been performing moderately well. Despite Omiya Ardija having a modest quality edge, recent meetings between these two teams have often ended in draws and tended to be low-scoring. The model predicts a home win with a 37% probability, which is notably less confident than one might expect given the quality gap, likely due to Sagan Tosu's poor form. The model also suggests a modest chance of both teams scoring and a tendency towards fewer goals overall, reflecting the recent trend of tight, low-scoring games between these sides.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Omiya Ardija	Sagan Tosu	0 - 0	J2 League	June 21, 2025
Sagan Tosu	Omiya Ardija	1 - 0	J2 League	March 15, 2025
Sagan Tosu	Omiya Ardija	3 - 0	J1 League	August 19, 2017
Omiya Ardija	Sagan Tosu	1 - 1	J1 League	June 4, 2017
Omiya Ardija	Sagan Tosu	1 - 1	J1 League	September 25, 2016
Sagan Tosu	Omiya Ardija	0 - 1	J1 League	May 21, 2016

Sagan Tosu Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Home	Fujieda MYFC	J2 League	1 - 0	Win
Oct 4, 26	Away	Blaublitz Akita	J2 League	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 26, 26	Away	Montedio Yamagata	J2 League	2 - 0	Loss
Sep 23, 26	Away	Vissel Kobe	Emperor Cup	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 19, 26	Home	Iwaki	J2 League	1 - 3	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Away	Imabari	J2 League	1 - 0	Loss

Omiya Ardija Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Home	Vanraure Hachinohe	J2 League	3 - 1	Win
Oct 7, 26	Away	Urawa	Emperor Cup	3 - 2	Loss
Oct 4, 26	Away	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 26, 26	Home	Ventforet Kofu	J2 League	5 - 1	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Fujieda MYFC	J2 League	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 12, 26	Home	Oita Trinita	J2 League	0 - 0	Draw

J2 League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	Omiya Ardija	30	15	7	8	61	40	+21	52
11	Sagan Tosu	30	12	8	10	35	29	+6	44

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	31	19	9	3	+28	66
2	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	31	19	7	5	+24	64
3	Kataller Toyama	31	16	10	5	+23	58
4	Albirex Niigata	31	15	9	7	0	54
5	Omiya Ardija	31	15	7	9	+20	52
6	Yokohama FC	31	15	6	10	+15	51
7	Tokushima Vortis	31	15	5	11	+16	50
8	Blaublitz Akita	31	14	7	10	+7	49
9	Shonan Bellmare	31	12	11	8	+7	47
10	Sagan Tosu	31	13	8	10	+7	47
11	Fujieda MYFC	31	10	15	6	+7	45
12	Ventforet Kofu	30	13	4	13	-3	43
13	Oita Trinita	31	11	9	11	+8	42
14	Consadole Sapporo	31	12	6	13	-2	42
15	Iwaki	30	11	7	12	-2	40
16	Jubilo Iwata	31	9	10	12	-8	37
17	Montedio Yamagata	31	10	4	17	-4	34
18	Tochigi City	31	9	7	15	-12	34
19	Kagoshima United	20	9	6	5	+10	33
20	FC Gifu	20	9	4	7	-1	31
21	Imabari	31	8	7	16	-13	31
22	Sagamihara	20	8	6	6	+1	30
23	Vanraure Hachinohe	31	7	9	15	-16	30
24	Kochi United	20	8	5	7	+1	29
25	Roasso Kumamoto	20	9	2	9	-2	29
26	Ehime FC	20	8	3	9	+5	27
27	Renofa Yamaguchi	20	7	6	7	+1	27
28	Gainare Tottori	20	7	6	7	-2	27
29	Matsumoto Yamaga	20	6	7	7	+8	25
30	Kanazawa	20	6	7	7	-5	25
31	Nara Club	20	6	5	9	-7	23
32	Thespakusatsu Gunma	20	6	4	10	-14	22
33	Kamatamare Sanuki	20	6	4	10	-16	22
34	Biwako Shiga	20	6	3	11	-15	21
35	Fukushima United	20	5	5	10	-12	20
36	Osaka	20	3	10	7	-3	19
37	Tochigi SC	20	4	7	9	-5	19
38	FC Ryukyu	20	3	8	9	-11	17
39	Kitakyushu	20	4	4	12	-17	16
40	Parceiro Nagano	20	3	7	10	-18	16

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Sagan Tosu to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Sagan Tosu has a 36.69% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.43 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.73% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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