Primera B Metropolitana
Match Analysis
San Martín Burzaco
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
L
L
W
D
D
D
Deportivo Merlo
L
D
W
D
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for San Martín Burzaco with a 46% probability. Despite the teams being closely matched in overall quality and having similar rest, both sides are showing poor recent form, which may contribute to an uncertain match outcome. However, Deportivo Merlo has historically dominated recent meetings, which could give the home side an edge. The model's confidence in a home win is somewhat higher than what the market odds suggest, as the odds imply a more balanced contest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Merlo | San Martín Burzaco | 0 - 4 | March 21, 2026 |
| San Martín Burzaco | Deportivo Merlo | 1 - 3 | November 16, 2025 |
| Deportivo Merlo | San Martín Burzaco | 1 - 0 | June 22, 2025 |
| Deportivo Merlo | San Martín Burzaco | 1 - 0 | September 1, 2024 |
| San Martín Burzaco | Deportivo Merlo | 1 - 2 | April 14, 2024 |
| Deportivo Merlo | San Martín Burzaco | 0 - 0 | November 9, 2019 |
San Martín Burzaco Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Deportivo Camioneros | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Sportivo Italiano | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 14, 26 | Away | Ituzaingó | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Villa San Carlos | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 5, 26 | Home | Liniers | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 27, 26 | Away | Real Pilar | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Deportivo Merlo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Villa San Carlos | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Liniers | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 14, 26 | Home | Real Pilar | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | UAI Urquiza | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Villa Dalmine | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 27, 26 | Away | Excursionistas | 5 - 0 | Loss |
Primera B Metropolitana Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Merlo | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 36 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 35 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.94% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.San Martín Burzaco to win
This prediction indicates that San Martín Burzaco has a 45.66% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.49 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.52% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.63% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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