Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Thursday 23rd July 2026 03:30 AM football predictions.

Sao Paulo Atletico Paranaense

Sao Paulo L W D D L L

Atletico Paranaense L W W D L D

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Sao Paulo	Atletico Paranaense	2 - 1	November 10, 2024
Atletico Paranaense	Sao Paulo	1 - 2	July 4, 2024
Atletico Paranaense	Sao Paulo	1 - 1	October 29, 2023
Sao Paulo	Atletico Paranaense	2 - 1	June 21, 2023
Atletico Paranaense	Sao Paulo	1 - 0	July 31, 2022
Sao Paulo	Atletico Paranaense	4 - 0	April 10, 2022

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 31, 26	Away	remo	1 - 0	Loss
May 26, 26	Home	Boston River	2 - 0	Win
May 23, 26	Home	Botafogo	1 - 1	Draw
May 20, 26	Home	Millonarios	1 - 1	Draw
May 16, 26	Away	Fluminense	2 - 1	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Corinthians	3 - 2	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 9, 26	Away	Boca Juniors	1 - 0	Loss
May 30, 26	Home	Mirassol	1 - 0	Win
May 24, 26	Away	remo	1 - 2	Win
May 17, 26	Home	Flamengo	1 - 1	Draw
May 10, 26	Away	Vasco DA Gama	1 - 0	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	Gremio	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Atletico Paranaense	18	9	3	6	24	18	+6	30
8	Sao Paulo	17	7	4	6	23	19	+4	25

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.08% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Sao Paulo has a 41.64% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.22 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.72% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.25% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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