Southend vs Berkhamsted Saturday 17th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

FA Cup

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Southend View team ›

Oct. 17, 2026 1 day, 9 hours ago

1 – 2

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Berkhamsted View team ›

New signings: Ephrahim Yeboah joined on loan Southend from Bristol City on 25 Sep; S. Keogh joined on loan Southend from Brighton U21 on 23 Sep; Finley Woodham joined on loan Southend from Charlton on 22 Sep. All transfers

Match Analysis

Southend Berkhamsted

Southend W W D L W W

Berkhamsted W W W L W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Both Southend and Berkhamsted are in strong recent form, but Southend has a clear quality gap in their favor and have been particularly sharp in attack lately. The model predicts a home win with a 66% probability, which is notably more confident than what the market odds suggest. Additionally, the model sees a good chance for both teams to score and for the match to exceed 1.5 goals, aligning closely with the market's view on these outcomes.

Southend Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Away	Boston United	National League	1 - 2	Win
Oct 3, 26	Home	AFC Fylde	National League	3 - 1	Win
Sep 30, 26	Away	Eastleigh	National League	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 26, 26	Home	Barrow	National League	2 - 4	Loss
Sep 19, 26	Away	Gateshead	National League	1 - 6	Win
Sep 15, 26	Home	Tamworth	National League	3 - 1	Win

Berkhamsted Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Away	Redditch United	FA Cup	0 - 2	Win
Sep 19, 26	Home	Hendon	FA Cup	4 - 1	Win
Sep 5, 26	Away	Bishop's Stortford	FA Cup	2 - 3	Win
Jul 11, 26	Away	Bedford Town	Friendlies Clubs	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 7, 26	Away	Ware	Friendlies Clubs	1 - 3	Win
Sep 13, 25	Away	Billericay Town	FA Cup	3 - 0	Loss

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.46% likelihood that both Southend and Berkhamsted will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Southend to win

This prediction indicates that Southend has a 65.58% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 18.34 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.02% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 60.4% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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Match Analysis

Why this prediction? AI insight

Southend Form (Last 6 Matches)

Berkhamsted Form (Last 6 Matches)

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

Southend to win

Over 1.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

Most Likely Scorelines

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