Premier Division
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
D
W
D
W
L
W
Derry City
L
L
L
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City have often ended in draws, and goals have been scarce in these encounters. The model predicts a home win with a 53% probability, which is notably more confident than the market odds suggest. This prediction leans on St Patrick's Athl.'s clear quality gap, moderate recent form compared to Derry City's poor form, and a rest advantage. The model also sees a good chance of more than one goal (54% over 1.5), but expects fewer goals overall (43% over 2.5).
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | 0 - 0 | May 22, 2026 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | 0 - 0 | March 16, 2026 |
| Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | 2 - 2 | August 29, 2025 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | 0 - 1 | June 23, 2025 |
| Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | 1 - 0 | May 5, 2025 |
| St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | 2 - 0 | March 3, 2025 |
St Patrick's Athl. Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Dundalk | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 14, 26 | Home | Doncaster | 4 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Waterford | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | Galway United | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jun 26, 26 | Away | Bohemians | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 19, 26 | Home | Sligo Rovers | 2 - 0 | Win |
Derry City Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 26 | Home | HNK Rijeka | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 23, 26 | Away | HNK Rijeka | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | CSKA Sofia | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 9, 26 | Away | CSKA Sofia | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | Waterford | 2 - 4 | Loss |
| Jun 26, 26 | Home | Drogheda United | 2 - 0 | Win |
Premier Division Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 43 |
| 6 | Derry City | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 29 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.75% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.St Patrick's Athl. to win
This prediction indicates that St Patrick's Athl. has a 53.39% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.45 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.74% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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