St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Friday 31st July 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

St Patrick's Athl. Derry City

St Patrick's Athl. W D W L W W

Derry City L L L W D L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Derry City	St Patrick's Athl.	0 - 0	May 22, 2026
St Patrick's Athl.	Derry City	0 - 0	March 16, 2026
Derry City	St Patrick's Athl.	2 - 2	August 29, 2025
St Patrick's Athl.	Derry City	0 - 1	June 23, 2025
Derry City	St Patrick's Athl.	1 - 0	May 5, 2025
St Patrick's Athl.	Derry City	2 - 0	March 3, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 14, 26	Home	Doncaster	4 - 2	Win
Jul 10, 26	Away	Waterford	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 3, 26	Home	Galway United	3 - 0	Win
Jun 26, 26	Away	Bohemians	2 - 0	Loss
Jun 19, 26	Home	Sligo Rovers	2 - 0	Win
Jun 12, 26	Home	Drogheda United	2 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 16, 26	Home	CSKA Sofia	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 9, 26	Away	CSKA Sofia	3 - 2	Loss
Jul 3, 26	Home	Waterford	2 - 4	Loss
Jun 26, 26	Home	Drogheda United	2 - 0	Win
Jun 22, 26	Away	Shamrock Rovers	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 19, 26	Away	Galway United	2 - 1	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	St Patrick's Athl.	24	12	6	6	39	20	+19	42
6	Derry City	25	6	11	8	32	31	+1	29

This prediction indicates that St Patrick's Athl. has a 57.72% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.15 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.81% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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