Tondela vs Alverca Sunday 18th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

View league ›

Tondela View team ›

Oct. 18, 2026 9 hours ago VS

Alverca View team ›

Match Analysis

Tondela Alverca

Tondela W W W W L L

Alverca W W W L D L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts an away win for Alverca with a 38% probability. Alverca is seen as the stronger team and has dominated recent meetings, which supports the prediction. However, the model also sees Tondela as being in strong form and having a rest advantage, which may explain why the predicted probability isn't higher. The market odds imply slightly more confidence in Alverca than the model does, as they are priced attractively to win.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Tondela	Alverca	1 - 1	Primeira Liga	February 13, 2026
Alverca	Tondela	1 - 0	Primeira Liga	September 12, 2025
Tondela	Alverca	1 - 2	Segunda Liga	May 11, 2025
Alverca	Tondela	1 - 1	Segunda Liga	January 12, 2025

Tondela Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Home	Torreense	Segunda Liga	1 - 0	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Imortal Albufeira	Taça de Portugal	1 - 5	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Portimonense	Segunda Liga	0 - 2	Win
Sep 5, 26	Home	FC Porto B	Segunda Liga	3 - 0	Win
Aug 28, 26	Away	União de Leiria	Segunda Liga	2 - 0	Loss
Aug 21, 26	Home	Academica	Segunda Liga	0 - 2	Loss

Alverca Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 12, 26	Away	Famalicao	Primeira Liga	1 - 4	Win
Sep 19, 26	Home	Rio Ave	Primeira Liga	1 - 0	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Nacional	Primeira Liga	1 - 3	Win
Sep 5, 26	Home	SC Braga	Primeira Liga	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Home	Santa Clara	Primeira Liga	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Away	Sporting CP	Primeira Liga	3 - 1	Loss

Predictions

Alverca to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Alverca has a 37.51% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.47 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.1% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions View plans

Odds Comparison

Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds View plans

Comments

[[ comment.user.username ]]

This comment has been removed

[[ comment.user.username ]]

[[ comment.comment ]]

[[comment.humanizedSubmitDate]] [[comment.starsCount]] [[comment.starsCount]] [[comment.repliesCount]] Reply Reply