Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG Sunday 11th October 2026 02:00 AM football predictions.

Liga de Expansión MX

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Venados FC View team ›

Oct. 11, 2026 1 week, 1 day ago

1 – 1

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Leones Negros UDG View team ›

Match Analysis

Venados FC Leones Negros UDG

Venados FC W W L W L L

Leones Negros UDG W W L D W D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Historically, Leones Negros UDG has been the stronger side in meetings between these two teams, often leading to games filled with goals. However, the model predicts a home win for Venados FC with a 48% probability, which is notably less confident than what the market odds suggest for a home victory. The model also sees a high chance (64%) that both teams will score and that there will be more than one goal in the match (69% chance), views that align closely with the market's inclination towards a higher-scoring game. Overall, despite Leones Negros UDG's past dominance, the prediction leans towards Venados FC at home with an expectation of an open, goals-oriented match.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Venados FC	Leones Negros UDG	2 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	April 12, 2026
Leones Negros UDG	Venados FC	1 - 0	Liga de Expansión MX	November 2, 2025
Leones Negros UDG	Venados FC	3 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	April 19, 2025
Venados FC	Leones Negros UDG	3 - 0	Liga de Expansión MX	November 2, 2024
Venados FC	Leones Negros UDG	1 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	January 25, 2024
Leones Negros UDG	Venados FC	4 - 1	Liga de Expansión MX	August 17, 2023

Venados FC Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Away	CA La Paz	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 2	Win
Sep 26, 26	Home	Monarcas	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 1	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Piratas	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Home	Tepatitlán	Liga de Expansión MX	5 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	CDS Tampico Madero	Liga de Expansión MX	4 - 3	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Away	Tlaxcala	Liga de Expansión MX	3 - 1	Loss

Leones Negros UDG Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Oct 4, 26	Home	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	6 - 3	Win
Sep 26, 26	Away	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 2	Win
Sep 20, 26	Away	Monarcas	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 0	Loss
Sep 13, 26	Home	CA La Paz	Liga de Expansión MX	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 6, 26	Away	Tapatío	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 3	Win
Aug 30, 26	Home	Piratas	Liga de Expansión MX	1 - 1	Draw

Liga de Expansión MX Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Leones Negros UDG	11	7	2	2	27	16	+11	23
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	+5	19

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	13	7	3	3	+13	24
2	Leones Negros UDG	12	7	3	2	+11	24
3	Monarcas	12	7	2	3	+9	23
4	Venados FC	12	6	2	4	+5	20
5	Cancún	12	5	3	4	+4	18
6	Piratas	12	5	3	4	+4	18
7	Mineros de Zacatecas	13	5	3	5	+3	18
8	Durango	12	5	3	4	0	18
9	Tapatío	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Dorados	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Correcaminos Uat	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Tlaxcala	13	4	4	5	-2	16
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	13	3	5	5	-4	14
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	-13	13
15	CDS Tampico Madero	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Tepatitlán	12	2	1	9	-24	7

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.84% likelihood that both Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Venados FC to win

This prediction indicates that Venados FC has a 47.6% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.04 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 69.48% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 66.75% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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