Vianense vs Paredes Sunday 11th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Liga 3

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Vianense View team ›

Oct. 10, 2026 1 week, 1 day ago

3 – 3

Full Time

Paredes View team ›

Match Analysis

Vianense Paredes

Vianense W W D W L W

Paredes W W W W L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Paredes is seen as having a modest quality edge over Vianense, which gives the model a reason to favor their chances. The model predicts a 50% probability for an away win, which is notably higher than what the current market odds suggest, indicating stronger confidence in Paredes' victory. Both teams are in strong recent form, but the model also leans toward an outcome with fewer goals, predicting an under 1.5 goals with a 49% chance, differing from the market's stronger tilt toward a higher-scoring match.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Vianense	Paredes	1 - 5	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	March 16, 2025
Paredes	Vianense	2 - 0	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A	November 30, 2024

Vianense Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Away	Estrela Calheta	Taça de Portugal	1 - 3	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Varzim	Liga 3	1 - 2	Win
Sep 5, 26	Home	Pacos Ferreira	Liga 3	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 30, 26	Home	Minas de Argozelo	Taça de Portugal	8 - 0	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	AD Marco 09	Liga 3	2 - 0	Loss
Aug 15, 26	Home	Trofense	Liga 3	2 - 0	Win

Paredes Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Home	Maria da Fonte	Taça de Portugal	5 - 1	Win
Sep 13, 26	Home	Fafe	Liga 3	2 - 1	Win
Sep 5, 26	Away	Varzim	Liga 3	0 - 1	Win
Aug 30, 26	Away	Ermesinde	Taça de Portugal	1 - 3	Win
Aug 23, 26	Home	Leça	Liga 3	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 15, 26	Away	Pacos Ferreira	Liga 3	0 - 1	Win

Liga 3 Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Paredes	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
7	Vianense	5	2	2	1	6	5	+1	8

View full table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	+8	13
3	Paredes	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Leça	6	3	1	2	+1	10
5	AD Marco 09	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Fafe	6	2	3	1	+4	9
7	Varzim	6	3	0	3	+2	9
8	Vianense	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Oliveirense	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Mafra	6	2	2	2	+4	8
11	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Caldas	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Trofense	6	1	2	3	-5	5
20	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Predictions

Paredes to win

This prediction indicates that Paredes has a 49.65% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.37 %

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.37% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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