Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim Saturday 19th September 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

Sept. 19, 2026 1 week, 6 days from now VS

Vitória de Sernache Varzim

Vitória de Sernache W L D L D D

Varzim L W W W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 30, 26	Away	Nazarenos	0 - 3	Win
Aug 23, 26	Away	Oliveirense	3 - 2	Loss
Aug 16, 26	Home	SC Covilha	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 8, 26	Away	Mafra	5 - 0	Loss
Jun 10, 26	Away	Leça	1 - 1	Draw
May 31, 26	Home	Louletano	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 5, 26	Home	Paredes	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Home	Trofense	5 - 1	Win
Aug 22, 26	Away	Pacos Ferreira	1 - 4	Win
Aug 16, 26	Home	AD Marco 09	2 - 1	Win
Aug 9, 26	Away	Trofense	0 - 1	Win
Jul 29, 26	Away	Tirsense	0 - 1	Win

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.96% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Vitória de Sernache has a 37.4% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.94 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.87% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.1% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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