Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra Sunday 18th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Taça de Portugal

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Vitoria Setubal View team ›

Oct. 18, 2026 9 hours ago VS

UD da Serra View team ›

Match Analysis

Vitoria Setubal UD da Serra

Vitoria Setubal W L L W D W

UD da Serra W W L L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Vitoria Setubal have had poor recent form, but UD da Serra have only moderate form, and Vitoria Setubal do have a modest quality edge between the sides. Both teams have shown strong attacking form recently, suggesting they can both find the net. The model predicts a home win with a 49% probability and also expects both teams to score and for the match to have more than 1.5 goals, reflecting the attacking tendencies of both sides despite their mixed recent performances.

Vitoria Setubal Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Away	Alcains	Taça de Portugal	0 - 2	Win
Jun 10, 24	Home	Amarante	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	0 - 3	Loss
Jun 1, 24	Away	Lusitânia	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	2 - 1	Loss
May 25, 24	Home	Moncarapachense	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	1 - 0	Win
May 19, 24	Away	União Santarém	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	0 - 0	Draw
May 5, 24	Home	Lusitânia	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	3 - 1	Win

UD da Serra Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Competition	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Away	Amora	Taça de Portugal	3 - 4	Win
Aug 30, 26	Home	Uniao de Pombal	Taça de Portugal	5 - 0	Win
Sep 21, 25	Away	CD Olivais e Moscavide	Taça de Portugal	2 - 0	Loss
Sep 8, 24	Away	Caldas	Taça de Portugal	1 - 0	Loss
Oct 2, 22	Home	Oliveirense	Taça de Portugal	0 - 4	Loss
Sep 11, 22	Home	Pedrógão São Pedro	Taça de Portugal	5 - 1	Win

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.81% likelihood that both Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Vitoria Setubal to win

This prediction indicates that Vitoria Setubal has a 48.92% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.66 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.9% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.39% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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