CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Friday 17th July 2026 02:30 AM football predictions.

CF Montreal Toronto FC

CF Montreal D L D W L W

Toronto FC L L L D L D

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Toronto FC	CF Montreal	1 - 1	August 30, 2025
CF Montreal	Toronto FC	1 - 6	May 17, 2025
CF Montreal	Toronto FC	0 - 1	July 20, 2024
Toronto FC	CF Montreal	5 - 1	May 18, 2024
Toronto FC	CF Montreal	2 - 3	August 20, 2023
CF Montreal	Toronto FC	2 - 0	May 13, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 23, 26	Away	DC United	4 - 4	Draw
May 16, 26	Home	Chicago Fire	0 - 2	Loss
May 13, 26	Home	Portland Timbers	2 - 2	Draw
May 9, 26	Home	Orlando City SC	2 - 0	Win
May 2, 26	Away	Atlanta United FC	3 - 1	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Home	New York City FC	1 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 24, 26	Away	Chicago Fire	2 - 1	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Charlotte	3 - 1	Loss
May 9, 26	Home	Inter Miami	2 - 4	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	San Jose Earthquakes	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Home	Atlanta United FC	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 22, 26	Home	Philadelphia Union	3 - 3	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
24	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22	29	-7	14
25	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22	31	-9	14

This prediction indicates that Toronto FC has a 35.68% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.84 %

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