Primera División
Match Analysis
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
FBC Melgar
D
W
W
D
D
W
Alianza Lima
W
D
W
L
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | FBC Melgar | 3 - 1 | March 10, 2026 |
| Alianza Lima | FBC Melgar | 2 - 2 | November 1, 2025 |
| FBC Melgar | Alianza Lima | 0 - 1 | June 28, 2025 |
| Alianza Lima | FBC Melgar | 1 - 1 | September 29, 2024 |
| FBC Melgar | Alianza Lima | 1 - 0 | April 28, 2024 |
| Alianza Lima | FBC Melgar | 0 - 0 | September 29, 2023 |
FBC Melgar Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | UCV Moquegua | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Sporting Cristal | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Cienciano | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jun 18, 26 | Away | LDU de Quito | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 17, 26 | Away | LDU de Quito | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 31, 26 | Home | Alianza Atletico | 3 - 1 | Win |
Alianza Lima Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Alianza Atletico | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Comerciantes Unidos | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 20, 26 | Home | Sport Huancayo | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Deportivo Cali | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| May 31, 26 | Away | FC Cajamarca | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 24, 26 | Home | Cultural Santa Rosa | 3 - 0 | Win |
Primera División Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 12 | +25 | 47 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | +12 | 35 |
Predictions
FBC Melgar to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that FBC Melgar has a 40.44% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.42 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.06% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.06% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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