Primeira Liga
Match Analysis
Nacional
Alverca
Nacional
L
W
D
L
D
D
Alverca
D
L
D
L
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | Alverca | 1 - 0 | April 18, 2026 |
| Alverca | Nacional | 1 - 0 | December 7, 2025 |
Nacional Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Guimaraes | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Estoril | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 10, 26 | Away | Santa Clara | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 23, 26 | Away | Estrela | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 22, 26 | Home | Leganes | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Tondela | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Alverca Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Santa Clara | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Sporting CP | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Estrela | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | FC Porto | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Sporting CP B | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Mafra | 1 - 0 | Win |
Primeira Liga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.16% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Nacional to win
This prediction indicates that Nacional has a 47.77% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.34 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.55% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.76% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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