Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone Sunday 11th October 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

Premiership

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Aberdeen View team ›

Oct. 11, 2026 2 days, 15 hours ago

0 – 1

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ST Johnstone View team ›

Match Analysis

Aberdeen ST Johnstone

Aberdeen W D W D D L

ST Johnstone D L W D L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts Aberdeen will win with a 45% probability. Despite ST Johnstone having a modest quality edge, Aberdeen’s moderate recent form and the fact that recent meetings between the two teams have usually ended level and produced few goals tilt the prediction toward a home win. The model also suggests there’s a 53% chance both teams will score and a 46% chance the match will have fewer than 3 goals, which aligns roughly with the market odds that imply slightly less confidence in an Aberdeen victory and under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
ST Johnstone	Aberdeen	0 - 0	March 15, 2025
Aberdeen	ST Johnstone	1 - 1	December 7, 2024
ST Johnstone	Aberdeen	1 - 2	August 5, 2024
Aberdeen	ST Johnstone	1 - 0	May 4, 2024
Aberdeen	ST Johnstone	0 - 2	February 28, 2024
ST Johnstone	Aberdeen	1 - 1	January 24, 2024

Aberdeen Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Away	Dunfermline	1 - 4	Win
Sep 19, 26	Away	Hibernian	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 15, 26	Away	Motherwell	0 - 4	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Kilmarnock	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 5, 26	Home	Kilmarnock	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 2, 26	Away	Celtic	3 - 0	Loss

ST Johnstone Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 19, 26	Home	Falkirk	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 9, 26	Home	Celtic	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 6, 26	Home	Hibernian	2 - 1	Win
Sep 2, 26	Away	Dundee	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 29, 26	Away	Heart Of Midlothian	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 8, 26	Away	ST Mirren	1 - 0	Loss

Premiership Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	ST Johnstone	7	2	2	3	9	10	-1	8
8	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	7	8	-1	8

Predictions

Aberdeen to win

This prediction indicates that Aberdeen has a 45.24% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.10 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.17% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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