Ashton United vs Alfreton Town Tuesday 13th October 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

Non League Premier - Northern

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Ashton United View team ›

Oct. 13, 2026 9 hours ago

0 – 0

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Alfreton Town View team ›

Match Analysis

Ashton United Alfreton Town

Ashton United D D L L W L

Alfreton Town L W L W L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts an away win for Alfreton Town with a 39% probability. Despite Ashton United having a modest quality edge, their poor recent form contrasts with Alfreton Town's moderate recent form, and Alfreton Town's recent defensive struggles may be a concern, but the model still leans towards an away win. The market odds imply a close contest, but the model is slightly more confident in the away win than the odds suggest. The model also predicts that both teams will score and that there will be more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals, seeing these outcomes as somewhat more likely than the market odds indicate.

Ashton United Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Away	Leek Town	2 - 2	Draw
Oct 6, 26	Away	Quorn	2 - 2	Draw
Sep 19, 26	Away	Buxton	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Home	Cleethorpes Town	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Away	Whitby Town	2 - 5	Win
Aug 31, 26	Away	Curzon Ashton	2 - 0	Loss

Alfreton Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 10, 26	Home	Bury	2 - 3	Loss
Oct 6, 26	Home	United of Manchester	1 - 0	Win
Oct 3, 26	Away	Redcar Athletic	3 - 1	Loss
Sep 29, 26	Home	Guiseley AFC	1 - 0	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Bamber Bridge	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Home	Stratford Town	0 - 2	Loss

Non League Premier - Northern Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	+4	18
14	Ashton United	11	3	4	4	14	13	+1	13

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.35% likelihood that both Ashton United and Alfreton Town will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Ashton United or Alfreton Town to win

This prediction indicates that Alfreton Town has a 39.47% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.60 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.96% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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