Chesham United vs Chelmsford City Saturday 10th October 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

National League - South

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Chesham United View team ›

Oct. 10, 2026 3 days, 14 hours ago

0 – 5

Full Time

Chelmsford City View team ›

Match Analysis

Chesham United Chelmsford City

Chesham United W L W W L L

Chelmsford City W D W D D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The model predicts a 41% chance that Chelmsford City will win, leaning slightly toward an away victory despite only a modest quality edge. The market odds show a close contest, but the model is a bit more confident in Chelmsford City than the odds suggest. Additionally, the model expects goals, with a 56% chance both teams will score and over 1.5 goals likely at 55%, reflecting the recent history of high-scoring matches between these sides. Overall, the model sees a competitive game with a good chance of an away win and plenty of goals.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Chesham United	Chelmsford City	0 - 2	April 18, 2026
Chelmsford City	Chesham United	2 - 1	August 30, 2025
Chelmsford City	Chesham United	1 - 1	February 1, 2025
Chesham United	Chelmsford City	2 - 2	January 21, 2025

Chesham United Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Home	Real Bedford	4 - 3	Win
Sep 26, 26	Home	Maidenhead	0 - 4	Loss
Sep 19, 26	Home	Ware	7 - 2	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Horsham	1 - 4	Win
Sep 8, 26	Home	Billericay Town	1 - 2	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Away	Truro City	3 - 1	Loss

Chelmsford City Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Oct 3, 26	Away	Brackley Town	0 - 2	Win
Sep 26, 26	Home	Horsham	0 - 0	Draw
Sep 19, 26	Away	Canvey Island	0 - 1	Win
Sep 12, 26	Away	Hampton & Richmond	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 8, 26	Away	Dorking Wanderers	3 - 3	Draw
Sep 5, 26	Home	Salisbury	1 - 1	Draw

National League - South Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
16	Chelmsford City	9	1	8	0	9	8	+1	11
19	Chesham United	10	3	1	6	16	19	-3	10

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.18% likelihood that both Chesham United and Chelmsford City will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Chesham United or Chelmsford City to win

This prediction indicates that Chelmsford City has a 40.59% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.00 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.51% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.25% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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Match Analysis

Why this prediction? AI insight

Head to Head History

Chesham United Form (Last 6 Matches)

Chelmsford City Form (Last 6 Matches)

National League - South Table

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

Chesham United or Chelmsford City to win

Over 1.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals

Most Likely Scorelines

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