Padova vs Carrarese Saturday 10th October 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

Serie B

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Padova View team ›

Oct. 11, 2026 2 days, 13 hours ago

0 – 2

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Carrarese View team ›

Match Analysis

Padova Carrarese

Padova L W L D W L

Carrarese L L L D L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Padova have shown moderate recent form, while Carrarese have struggled in their recent matches. The model predicts Padova will win with a 51% probability, which is slightly more confident than what the current market odds imply. The model also sees a 51% chance that both teams will score and predicts fewer than 2.5 goals in the game, aligning closely with the market view on these points.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Padova	Carrarese	1 - 0	February 10, 2026
Carrarese	Padova	0 - 0	August 31, 2025

Padova Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 19, 26	Away	Palermo	2 - 1	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Home	Ascoli	1 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Cremonese	3 - 1	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Home	Verona	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 23, 26	Away	Pisa	0 - 1	Win
Aug 15, 26	Away	Udinese	1 - 0	Loss

Carrarese Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 19, 26	Home	Benevento	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 12, 26	Away	Catanzaro	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 5, 26	Home	Empoli	0 - 1	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Away	Ascoli	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Home	Mantova	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 15, 26	Away	Torino	1 - 0	Loss

Serie B Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Padova	5	2	1	2	5	6	-1	7
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	2	6	-4	1

Predictions

Padova to win

This prediction indicates that Padova has a 50.85% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.39 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.27% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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