Perugia vs Vado Sunday 11th October 2026 06:30 PM football predictions. - Dukamneti Sports
Serie C - Girone B logo

Serie C - Girone B

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Perugia logo Perugia View team ›
Oct. 11, 2026 2 days, 13 hours ago
0 – 2
Full Time
Vado logo Vado View team ›

New signing: Amoah Foa Sam joined Perugia from Almere City FC on 28 Sep. All transfers

Match Analysis

Perugia Vado
Perugia W W L L L W
Vado W D L L L L
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

The two sides are closely matched in overall quality, but Perugia have moderate recent form while Vado have poor recent form, with both teams having similar rest before the match. The model predicts a home win with a 52% probability, which is notably higher than what the market odds imply. The model also suggests it's unlikely both teams will score and that the game will finish with fewer than 2.5 goals, aligning somewhat more confidently with the under outcomes than the market odds indicate.

Perugia Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Oct 3, 26 Away Gubbio 1 - 3 Win
Sep 27, 26 Home Reggiana 1 - 0 Win
Sep 20, 26 Away Grosseto 2 - 0 Loss
Sep 16, 26 Home Spezia 0 - 3 Loss
Sep 13, 26 Away Ravenna 3 - 0 Loss
Sep 6, 26 Home Pineto 2 - 1 Win

Vado Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Oct 3, 26 Home Forli 1 - 0 Win
Sep 26, 26 Away Torres 0 - 0 Draw
Sep 20, 26 Home Pescara 0 - 1 Loss
Sep 16, 26 Away Livorno 3 - 2 Loss
Sep 12, 26 Home Città di Campobasso 0 - 1 Loss
Sep 6, 26 Away Reggiana 3 - 1 Loss

Serie C - Girone B Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
6 Perugia 8 4 1 3 9 12 -3 13
14 Vado 8 2 2 4 6 8 -2 8

Predictions

Perugia to win
This prediction indicates that Perugia has a 52.35% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.43 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.42% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison
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