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J2 League
Sagan Tosu logo Sagan Tosu
Sept. 19, 2026 2 weeks from now VS
Iwaki logo Iwaki

Match Analysis

Sagan Tosu Iwaki
Sagan Tosu D W L D W W
Iwaki L D L L W W
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Sagan Tosu Iwaki 1 - 0 June 28, 2025
Iwaki Sagan Tosu 1 - 1 March 9, 2025

Sagan Tosu Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 29, 26 Away Yokohama FC 2 - 2 Draw
Aug 26, 26 Home Kataller Toyama 4 - 0 Win
Aug 22, 26 Home Tochigi City 1 - 3 Loss
Aug 16, 26 Away Tokushima Vortis 0 - 0 Draw
Aug 8, 26 Home Ventforet Kofu 2 - 0 Win
Jul 20, 26 Home Verspah Oita 7 - 1 Win

Iwaki Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 29, 26 Home Albirex Niigata 2 - 3 Loss
Aug 26, 26 Home Oita Trinita 0 - 0 Draw
Aug 22, 26 Away Oita Trinita 4 - 1 Loss
Aug 15, 26 Away Fujieda MYFC 3 - 1 Loss
Aug 9, 26 Home Imabari 2 - 1 Win
Jul 12, 26 Away Parceiro Nagano 1 - 3 Win

J2 League Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
9 Sagan Tosu 23 10 7 6 29 20 +9 37
16 Iwaki 23 8 7 8 27 29 -2 31

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 52.18% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.
Sagan Tosu to win
This prediction indicates that Sagan Tosu has a 53.79% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.60 %
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.36% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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