Alfreton Town vs Burton Albion Saturday 11th July 2026 04:00 PM football predictions.

Alfreton Town Burton Albion

Alfreton Town D W D D W D

Burton Albion D D D W D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Alfreton Town	Burton Albion	1 - 4	July 11, 2023
Alfreton Town	Burton Albion	2 - 1	July 27, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Apr 25, 26	Home	Curzon Ashton	3 - 3	Draw
Apr 18, 26	Away	Marine	2 - 3	Win
Apr 14, 26	Home	Buxton	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 11, 26	Home	Oxford City	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 6, 26	Away	Leamington	1 - 2	Win
Apr 3, 26	Home	Worksop Town	1 - 1	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 2, 26	Away	Leyton Orient	2 - 2	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Home	Exeter City	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 19, 26	Away	Peterborough	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 11, 26	Home	AFC Wimbledon	1 - 0	Win
Apr 6, 26	Away	Mansfield Town	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 3, 26	Home	Barnsley	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1629	Burton Albion	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1629	Alfreton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This prediction indicates that the football match is poised to end in a draw.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.53% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.29% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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