Cancún vs Toluca Saturday 04th July 2026 04:00 AM football predictions.

Cancún Toluca

Cancún L L L L L D

Toluca L L W L L D

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 21, 26	Home	Monterrey	1 - 4	Loss
Dec 18, 24	Home	FC Juarez	1 - 3	Loss
Sep 10, 24	Away	Louisville City	4 - 2	Loss
Jan 31, 23	Home	Chicago Fire	0 - 5	Loss
Dec 11, 22	Home	Club America	0 - 2	Loss
Dec 9, 22	Home	Monterrey	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 10, 26	Away	Pachuca	2 - 0	Loss
May 4, 26	Home	Pachuca	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 26, 26	Home	Leon	4 - 1	Win
Apr 23, 26	Away	Mazatlán	4 - 3	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	Club America	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 13, 26	Home	Atletico San Luis	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1647	Toluca	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2676	Cancún	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.05% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Toluca has a 59.89% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 21.84 %

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