Chorley vs Bury Saturday 11th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Chorley Bury

Chorley W D L L W L

Bury L D W L L W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Chorley Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Apr 25, 26	Home	Worksop Town	2 - 1	Win
Apr 18, 26	Away	King's Lynn Town	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 11, 26	Home	Curzon Ashton	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 6, 26	Away	Marine	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 3, 26	Home	AFC Fylde	2 - 0	Win
Mar 31, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	1 - 0	Loss

Bury Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 19, 25	Home	Stalybridge Celtic	0 - 2	Loss
Aug 16, 25	Away	Stalybridge Celtic	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 2, 25	Home	South Liverpool	6 - 0	Win
Jul 26, 25	Away	Radcliffe	3 - 2	Loss
Oct 12, 24	Away	Harborough Town	1 - 0	Loss
Sep 28, 24	Away	Radcliffe	2 - 3	Win

Friendlies Clubs Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1629	Bury	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1629	Chorley	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.18% likelihood that both Chorley and Bury will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Bury to win

This prediction indicates that Bury has a 45.9% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.74 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.05% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.25% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Friendlies Clubs