Chorley vs Spalding United Saturday 26th September 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

National League - North

Sept. 26, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Chorley Spalding United

Chorley W L D D W W

Spalding United W W D W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 8, 26	Home	Darlington 1883	5 - 2	Win
Sep 5, 26	Away	Oxford City	4 - 0	Loss
Aug 31, 26	Home	Brackley Town	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 29, 26	Away	Merthyr Town	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Home	Scarborough Athletic	2 - 1	Win
Aug 18, 26	Away	Marine	0 - 2	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 8, 26	Away	Spennymoor Town	1 - 3	Win
Sep 5, 26	Home	Southport	2 - 0	Win
Aug 31, 26	Away	South Shields	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 29, 26	Home	Worksop Town	3 - 1	Win
Aug 22, 26	Away	Chester	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 18, 26	Home	Macclesfield	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Spalding United	7	3	2	2	8	4	+4	11
17	Chorley	7	2	2	3	9	12	-3	8

This prediction indicates that Spalding United has a 39.94% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.37 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.2% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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