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Primera Nacional

Aug. 9, 2026 4 weeks, 1 day ago
1 – 0
Full Time

Match Analysis

Colon Santa Fe San Telmo
Colon Santa Fe D L L W W L
San Telmo W L L L W D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Colon Santa Fe and San Telmo both have moderate recent form, and the two sides have similar rest coming into this match. The model predicts a home win with a 48% probability, which is notably higher than what the market odds suggest. The market odds imply a stronger favor towards a Colon Santa Fe victory, but they also indicate higher confidence in both teams scoring than the model does.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
San Telmo Colon Santa Fe 3 - 1 March 22, 2026
San Telmo Colon Santa Fe 1 - 0 August 16, 2025
Colon Santa Fe San Telmo 0 - 1 April 14, 2025
Colon Santa Fe San Telmo 0 - 1 October 12, 2024
San Telmo Colon Santa Fe 2 - 0 May 25, 2024

Colon Santa Fe Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 1, 26 Away Acassuso 1 - 1 Draw
Jul 26, 26 Home Chaco For Ever 0 - 1 Loss
Jul 17, 26 Away Ferro Carril Oeste 2 - 0 Loss
Jul 12, 26 Home Central Norte 4 - 0 Win
Jul 5, 26 Away Deportivo Madryn 1 - 2 Win
Jun 20, 26 Away Chaco For Ever 1 - 0 Loss

San Telmo Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Aug 2, 26 Home San Miguel 1 - 0 Win
Jul 26, 26 Away Racing Cordoba 2 - 1 Loss
Jul 11, 26 Home Chaco For Ever 1 - 3 Loss
Jul 5, 26 Away Ferro Carril Oeste 2 - 1 Loss
Jun 20, 26 Home Racing Cordoba 2 - 0 Win
Jun 14, 26 Away Central Norte 0 - 0 Draw

Primera Nacional Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
8 Colon Santa Fe 23 9 9 5 28 19 +9 36
30 San Telmo 22 5 8 9 18 23 -5 23

Predictions

Correct Prediction! ✅

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 57.14% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Colon Santa Fe to win
This prediction indicates that Colon Santa Fe has a 47.71% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.89 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.05% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 66.85% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison
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