Derby vs Lincoln Saturday 08th August 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Derby Lincoln

Derby L W L W L W

Lincoln L W L W W W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Lincoln	Derby	0 - 0	January 20, 2024
Derby	Lincoln	3 - 1	December 21, 2023
Derby	Lincoln	2 - 0	September 19, 2023
Derby	Lincoln	1 - 1	February 14, 2023
Lincoln	Derby	2 - 0	September 13, 2022

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 24, 26	Away	SC Freiburg	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 17, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	0 - 2	Win
May 2, 26	Home	Sheffield Utd	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	QPR	2 - 3	Win
Apr 21, 26	Away	Norwich	2 - 1	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Home	Oxford United	1 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 17, 26	Home	Leyton Orient	0 - 2	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Away	Boston United	0 - 1	Win
Jul 10, 26	Away	Lincoln United	2 - 1	Loss
May 2, 26	Away	Port Vale	0 - 2	Win
Apr 25, 26	Home	Wycombe	4 - 3	Win
Apr 21, 26	Away	Doncaster	0 - 2	Win

This prediction indicates that Lincoln has a 42.35% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.70 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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