Evesham United vs Caerau (Ely) Saturday 11th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Evesham United Caerau (Ely)

Evesham United L W D W L L

Caerau (Ely) W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 27, 25	Away	AFC Telford United	4 - 1	Loss
Sep 16, 25	Home	Racing Club Warwick	1 - 0	Win
Sep 13, 25	Away	Racing Club Warwick	3 - 3	Draw
Aug 30, 25	Home	Bromsgrove Sporting	5 - 2	Win
Jul 11, 25	Home	Cheltenham	1 - 4	Loss
Aug 6, 24	Away	Newcastle Town	3 - 2	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 26, 26	Home	Undy Athletic	2 - 0	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1032	Caerau (Ely)	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
1629	Evesham United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.6% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Evesham United has a 41.53% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.82 %

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